Date Archives: November 2017

North Texas' hot housing market won't cool in 2018, according to a new forecast.  The Dallas-Fort Worth area is expected to be one of the top home markets in the country next year, according Realtor.com's just-released projections. Only Las Vegas will have a stronger home market in 2018, the report predicts.  The D-FW area is forecast to see about a 6 percent increase in home sales and a 5.57 percent hike in median home prices in the year ahead. That's twice the national growth rate for sales and prices, according to Realtor.com.  In Realtor.com's  2017  forecast, the D-FW market was ranked 48th with home sales estimated to see a 5.09 percent increase and median home prices predicted to grow at 4.13 percent.   Rising home inventories in many U.S. markets will enable home sales to grow.

"Inventory increases will be felt in higher priced segments after spring home buying season, which we expect to take hold and begin to provide relief for buyers and drive sales growth in 2019 and beyond," Javier Vivas, director of economic research for Realtor.com, said in the report.

Next year is likely to see a rise in millennial homebuyers who will account for more than 40 percent of new mortgages.  "Millennials are a driving force in today's housing market," Vivas said. "They already dominate lower price home mortgage and are getting close to overtaking older generations for mid- and upper-tier mortgages."

Realtor.com says the biggest uncertainty for next year's housing picture is the current federal tax code overhaul, which could reduce incentives for homeownership and raise taxes for some homebuyers.

• Dallas Morning News, November 30, 2017

• Dallas Business Journal, November 14, 2017

This has been a good year for the global economy, and 2018 will follow that trend, analysts at Goldman Sachs said.  Economic growth around the world has picked up steam this year. Germany — Europe's largest economy — grew an unexpectedly strong 0.8 percent in the third quarter. In Japan, the economy has grown for seven straight quarters. Meanwhile, in the U.S., the economy grew 3 percent in the third quarter.  "2017 is shaping up to be the first year of the expansion in which growth surprises to the upside," Goldman analyst Charles Himmelberg said in a note to clients Thursday. "We expect 2018 to deliver more of the same."  Himmelberg and his team expect the global economy to grow 4 percent next year for several reasons, including strong growth momentum, easing financial conditions, global monetary policy remaining "highly accommodative by historical standards" and the likelihood of fiscal stimulus in the U.S.

• CNBC, November 17, 2017

The Texas economy added 71,500 seasonally adjusted nonfarm jobs in October. Annual employment growth for Texas was 2.6 percent in October, marking 90 consecutive months of annual growth. Texas' seasonally adjusted unemployment rate fell to 3.9 percent, setting a record for the lowest unemployment rate recorded in four decades.  "By adding an impressive 71,500 jobs over the past month and 316,100 jobs over the year, Texas employers have once again demonstrated their unmatched innovation and ability to achieve success in our country's premier place to do business," said TWC Chairman Andres Alcantar. "This economy provides valuable opportunities for the highly skilled Texas workforce to also achieve success."

The DFW area unemployment dropped to 3.0 percent, down from 3.8 percent one year ago.  The area now has its lowest unemployment in over four decades.

• Texas Workforce Commission, November 17, 2017