Home Prices

While higher mortgage rates have driven many buyers out of the North Texas housing market, home prices still soared in June more than in other red-hot U.S. metros.  The median home price in Dallas-Fort Worth reached $426,000 in June, up 29.3% from $329,500 in June 2021, according to REMAX's just-released national housing report.  

U.S. home prices were up 11% from a year ago.  D-FW saw the largest year-over-year increase in median sale price among the 53 metro areas analyzed by the brokerage. Some major markets, such as Austin, are not included in the report.  Home sales were down 11.8% in the metro area, with nearly 10,000 transactions, according to RE/MAX. Home inventory has nearly doubled from a year ago to 14,404 properties. Even with the sharp increase year over year, prices were down slightly from May. 

Dallas-Fort Worth home prices still soaring

Of all 53 metro areas RE/MAX analyzed, the company found Dallas-Fort Worth's median home price grew the most from June 2021 to June 2022.

Table: Mitchell Parton/DMN  Source: Re/Max National Housing Report  

Mark Wolfe, owner of RE/MAX DFW Associates, said homes are still selling over list price, especially in places like Collin County and Denton County. Some offers will even come in as much as $60,000 over list price when they are the only offer, a carryover from the busier market when buyers had to offer above the asking price if they wanted to get a home.  

People relocating from California have no problem paying $50,000 to $100,000 over list price to make sure they get the home they want, and they will still see it as a good deal, Wolfe said.  "Especially in the northern suburbs, we have a tremendous amount of California homebuyers," he said. "They're flushed with cash." 

Nationally, home sales dropped 17.6% since last June and inventory grew for a third consecutive month, up 34.1% from May.  "The market is moving toward greater balance, especially with inventory gains and the slowing of price appreciation. The past few years have been one of the most competitive times ever for buyers — and we're finally seeing conditions ease up," Nick Bailey, president and CEO of RE/MAX, said in a statement.  

Wolfe said that a quarter of all listings on the market in D-FW are now seeing price reductions, as homes aren't selling as quickly as sellers and agents expect. Homes seeing price drops were likely overpriced to begin with, he said.  The number of showings per listing at Wolfe's offices are down from eight each week last year to an average of three now. Homes are taking weeks instead of days to sell, and more inventory is available.  "But three showings a week is really still a good market," Wolfe said. "It's a little bit more of a normal market than the boom we've had for the last two years."

• Dallas Morning News, July 18, 2022

Home prices in Dallas-Fort Worth rose a record 30.7% year over year in March, according to the latest report from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index

Rapid Home price growth in North Texas and in cities nationwide continued to break records at the start of the year, but economists expect the market could change its tune in the months ahead.  Home prices in Dallas-Fort Worth rose a record 30.7% year over year in March while national prices grew 20.6%, according to the latest report from the S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Index.   "Demand for homes has stubbornly kept ahead of supply this spring, even in the face of rapidly rising costs," said Dan Handy, an economic data analyst for Zillow. "This imbalance between supply and demand for homes this spring has been the key driver in home price growth that continues to set records month after month."  The index compares sales price changes of specific properties over time. Case-Shiller's price estimate is considered more accurate than MLS home sales data which can be influenced by the type of properties that are selling each month.  

Economists predict the rapid price growth could finally begin to slow in the coming months as buyer demand is softened by affordability challenges.  "Mortgage costs are more than 50% higher than they were a year ago, and prospective buyers will likely start to rethink what they can afford," Handy said. "Sellers may already be responding, with the rate of price cuts now on the rise, to meet buyers where they are. Price growth will likely begin to come back towards earth as many buyers are priced out and inventory rises."  Dallas-Fort Worth home showings were down 9% year over year in April and 11% since March, according to ShowingTime.

• Dallas Morning News, May 31, 2022

Price drops are "becoming increasingly common" in some of the most popular housing markets across the United States.  According to a new Redfin data. More than 20% of home sellers dropped their price in May in some of the best markets in the nation.   "When mortgage rates were at or belw 3%, both local and out-of-town homebuyers were more than willing to tolerate high prices, but at more than 5%, many are now priced out," redfin chief economist Daryl Fairweather said in a statement.  "A home's price is driven by the balance of supply and demand, and when demand drops off and supply increases like it is now, rapid price increases evaporate quickly."  Areas that saw a huge surge in migration and sharp increases in home prices over the past two years are now seeing "an abrupt drop-off in demand," which is forcing sellers to "drop their prices with increasing frequency," Fairweather said.

• Fox Business, May 31, 2022

Collin, Denton, Ellis and Kaufman counties

As home costs soar across the state, four counties in Dallas-Fort Worth saw especially significant growth over the last year.  The median sale price for single-family homes increased nearly 27% in Collin, Denton, Ellis and Kaufman counties in February compared with a year prior, according to the latest numbers from the MetroTex Association of Realtors.   Collin County holds the highest median sale price at $475,000. Tarrant County led in sales, with 1,812 homes changing hands.  The sale price for local single-family homes sold by real estate agents across North Texas reached a record median of $365,000 in February, up 21% from a year earlier, according to the latest data from the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University and North Texas Real Estate Information Systems. It shot up $15,000 from January to February, a 4% increase.

"Everyone is hoping for a spring inventory influx, but it's unlikely it will be nearly enough to balance this market," Marissa Benat, president of the Collin County Association of Realtors, said in a statement. "We are getting buyers ready to make competitive offers so they can get moved into their home sooner than later."

Inventory is not keeping up with the high demand, and building permits are down as builders face supply chain and labor challenges.

• Dallas Morning News, March 16, 2022

The U.S. housing market shifted into overdrive during the pandemic, with more than 6 million homes selling in 2021 despite skyrocketing prices in many cities.    The median selling price for a home in November, $416,900, was nearly 25% more than it was in February 2020.   In the early weeks of 2022, there's no sign that cutthroat bidding and rising prices won't continue. The total inventory of homes on the market dipped below 300,000 nationwide in early January — less than half of the inventory available before the pandemic.   "It's uniquely challenging for first-time buyers, since they're not benefitting from the increase in home prices," said Realtor.com chief economist Danielle Hale, who predicts more record-high home prices this year. "We don't have prices decreasing in any area of our housing forecast, calling into attention that many of these issues are nationwide." 

• Bloomberg, February 6, 2022

Homebuyers got crushed last year as home prices soared at their highest clip on record. Housing economists saw that price growth—which peaked at a year-over-year rate of 20% last year—as simply unsustainable. Their economic models agreed: Among the seven forecast models reviewed by Fortune heading into 2022, every single one predicted home price growth would slow significantly this year.

But over the past few weeks, that consensus is no longer so unified. Now, more industry insiders are throwing out their previous forecasts and replacing them with more bullish short-term outlooks. Indeed, some experts say the 2022 spring housing market might go down as one of the most competitive on record.

Look no further than Zillow. Back in December, the home listing site predicted that U.S. home values would climb 11% this year. Economists at Zillow now say that forecast is too conservative. Their latest forecast finds home prices are set to spike 16.4% between December 2021 and December 2022. If it comes to fruition, it would mark another brutal year for home shoppers.

• Fortune, February 7, 2022

Home sales in North Texas are slowing.  But buyers aren't getting a price break.  Almost 54% of the homes sold in the Dallas-Fort Worth area through September went for more than the asking price. That's higher than the nationwide average of properties that are pulling in more dough than the sellers are asking, according to a new report by Porch Group, a home sellers service firm.  "In most years before the pandemic, the percentage of homes selling above asking hovered around 20% during off-peak times and around 25% during the busy summer season," analysts at Porch.com said. "In 2020 and 2021, however, the share has remained much higher than usual.  Throughout 2020 and 2021, the market has seen steep increases in home prices as a growing number of buyers compete for a limited inventory of homes," the new report said. "These conditions have required bidders to be aggressive in their offers to beat out competitors, often offering amounts significantly above sellers' asking price."

DFW homes are selling for an average of 102% of asking price through the first three quarters of this year.  "The latest rankings show that prices in some metro areas, such as Atlanta and Dallas, are rising rapidly, producing market premiums much greater than the last housing run-up about 15 years ago," the new Florida report says.  Dallas-area home prices were up 25% year-over-year in the latest S&P CoreLogic Case-Shiller Home Price Index.

North Texas home sales by real estate agents have been down from a year ago in each of the last four months because of the shortage of properties on the market and growing affordability challenges.

• Dallas Morning News, December 4, 2021