The North Texas housing market is downshifting quickly, with Dallas-Fort Worth being the only U.S. market to see a decrease in home sale prices last month, according to a report released today. DFW home prices are down 1.9% year over year in July, according to the latest Re/Max National Housing Report.
And what a difference a month makes. Last month, DFW led the U.S. for home price increases, with June prices up 29.3% over the previous year. In hard numbers, home sales prices in DFW fell to $413,900 in July from $422,000 in July 2021. Homes in DFW spend an average of 23 days on the market before selling.
Higher interest rates and inflation, as well as record home prices, triggered a sharp drop in demand for housing, said Todd Luong, a realtor with Re/Max DFW Associates: "Here at our Re/Max office in Dallas-Fort Worth, our listings are currently getting on average 2.7 showings per week," Luong said. "Last year, at this same time, our listings were earning on average 5.9 showings per week. That is a huge drop in buyer demand compared to the previous year. Record home prices and higher mortgage rates have forced many potential buyers out of the market, especially first-time homebuyers."
While the latest trends may disappoint some sellers, buyers now have more choices and better opportunities for good deals, Luong said. Luong said that the DFW housing market has been challenged with low inventory for years and reached an all-time low earlier this year, with only a two-week supply. Now, however, inventory is increasing. "Although buyers have more choices now, it is still not a balanced market as we only have about a two-month housing supply," Luong said. "In a normal market, you have about a five to six-month supply of housing."
A new report from Zillow also found falling home values, although the numbers didn't match Re/Max's precisely because of different study methods and different geographic definitions of DFW as a metro area, among other reasons. According to Zillow's findings, the Dallas-Fort Worth metro area's typical home value is $396,904, down 1.1% since June, the first month of decline. Values are up 55.4% since July 2019.
Zillow also reported that the mortgage payment on a typical home in DFW is $2,633 a month, including taxes and insurance. That's up 77.4% compared to July 2019.
According to Zillow, inventory in DFW has risen 10.2% since June, and the share of listings with a price cut in July was 22%, compared to 15.6% in June. Nationwide, after two years of unprecedented growth, home values fell for the first time since 2012 as competition for houses eased, according to Zillow's July market report.
The slowdown is being driven by decreased competition among buyers. Zillow's analysis says that affordability pressures have pushed many to the sidelines, and buyers are waiting in the wings to resume their search if and when prices relax a bit. Skylar Olsen, Zillow's chief economist, called the flattening of home values "a badly needed rebalancing. This slowdown is about discouraged buyers pulling back after the affordability shock from higher rates," Olsen said. "As prices soften, many will renew their interest, and we will continue our progress back to 'normal.'"
Luong said he sees positive signs in the market. The interest rate for a 30-year fixed mortgage dropped below 5% after peaking in June. More than 290,000 new jobs were added in Dallas-Fort Worth last year, so North Texas has one of the strongest labor markets in the country. "Reasonably priced homes that are in good condition and move-in ready are still selling very fast," he said. "However, the bidding wars have subsided considerably across the board."
Data source: U.S. Census Bureau
· Urban Edge
More than one of every 10 people moving to Texas during the 2020 pandemic year was from California. Florida, Colorado, Illinois and Louisiana rounded out the top five states exporting people to the Lone Star State.
INFUTOR AND TEXAS REAL ESTATE RESEARCH CENTER AT TEXAS A&M UNIVERSITY
We already knew that many of the transplants to Texas hail from California. Now we know just how many.
More than one of every 10 people moving to Texas during the 2020 pandemic year was from the Golden State, according to a study released this week by the Texas Real Estate Research Center at Texas A&M University.
In addition, California ranked as the top "move-to-Texas state" in 19 of the last 20 years, said Luis Torres, research economist at the center.
The only exception was 2005 when Hurricane Katrina pushed waves of Louisiana residents into the Lone Star State.
The share of Californians relocating to Texas has increased every year since 2011, Torres said.
Florida was the second-largest source of new Texans, with a 7.2% share — still less than half of the California influx. Rounding out the top five sources were Colorado, Illinois and Louisiana. International movers were not included in the study.
Another recent study quantifies the companies moving out of California, finding that for the first six months of 2021, the number of companies relocating their headquarters out of the state is running at twice the rate for 2020.
Some 265 companies moved their headquarters to other states from Jan. 1, 2018 through June 30, 2021, based on the date of the announcement or date of documentation with the state, whichever came first, according to a study by McKinney-based Spectrum Location Services and Stanford University's Hoover Institution.
"The losses are accelerating in that such relocations in the first half of 2021, which total 74, exceed that for all of 2020. Every month in 2021, twice as many companies are relocating their headquarters as in the prior year. The half-year monthly average for 2021 also significantly exceeds the monthly averages for 2018 and 2019."
For former California firms, Texas tops the popularity list, attracting 113 of the 265 companies, followed by Arizona and Nevada, according to Vranich and Ohanian's research.
North Texas landed 41 of the 113 companies, the Austin area won 57, the Houston area claimed nine and the San Antonio area lured six.
Shifting back to the migration of people, the majority of newcomers to Texas were from Los Angeles County, making up 3.1% of the total migration, according to the Texas Real Estate Research Center's findings.
"This is not surprising since Los Angeles County is the most populated in California," Torres said. "Four other Southern Californian counties — San Diego, Orange, Riverside and San Bernardino — made up the top 10 counties with residents moving to Texas."
"Contrary to popular belief, the majority of people moving from California are coming from the southern part of the state and not from Silicon Valley, which is farther north," Torres added.
Other U.S. counties in the top 10 sources of new Texans were Maricopa (Arizona), Cook (Illinois), Clark (Nevada), El Paso (Colorado), and King (Washington).
The influx of Californians in Dallas-Fort Worth has repercussions across a wide range of industries, including residential real estate, said Sharon Brown, general manager for DFW for Opendoor.
"California buyers are still coming in," Brown said. "They're still displacing folks who are moving out to the suburbs, getting bigger and better homes for their money."
Paige Shipp, regional director with housing analyst MetroStudy Inc. fears home sales might slow next year in the ramp up to presidential and congressional elections. "We typically have much slower selling seasons right before an election," she said. "After that happens, the flood gates open and people come out. It's not a matter of who wins." Worries about a recession may also impact the home market. "We spent the better part of the last decade still looking over our shoulder," said George Ratiu, senior economist with Realtor.com. "The last recession was so bad that we are still carrying some of the scars from that." However, Dr. James Gaines, chief economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University states that Texas economy is still expanding. "And we are extremely unlikely to be in a recession by the end of this calendar year," he said. "We are probably pretty safe through the first six months of next year."
The number of homes listed for sale with North Texas real estate agents has risen by about 15% this year. But they aren't in the price range most buyers want. "The inventory is increasing at the upper end — $750,000 and above," Dr. James Gaines, chief economist with the Real Estate Center at Texas A&M University said. "If you have a well-located $300,000 house, you can sell it tomorrow. We are seeing evidence of price fatigue in the market." D-FW home prices are up only about 3% so far in 2019 — nothing like the double-digit percentage home price gains of a couple of years ago. "The recent spike in mortgage rates did expose how price sensitive the market is," said Paige Shipp, regional director with housing analyst MetroStudy Inc. "Things are not quite as rosy as they seem in terms of what people can afford." Many home sellers haven't gotten the message, she said. "They want to list their house for more than their neighbors sold for and sell it overnight." D-FW has an undersupply of homes priced below $250.000.
McKesson Corp., the nation's largest pharmaceutical distributor, announced last week that it will relocate its headquarters from San Francisco to Las Colinas in April. The company, which delivers prescription drugs and medical supplies, has more than 75,000 employees globally and had revenue of $208 billion last year. It ranks sixth on the Fortune 500 list, behind only Walmart, Exxon Mobil, Berkshire Hathaway, Apple and UnitedHealth Group. With its move, McKesson will become the second-largest company by revenue to be based in North Texas, surpassing AT&T Inc. The largest, Exxon Mobil, is also headquartered in Las Colinas. Dallas-Fort Worth had 22 Fortune 500 company headquarters this year. That'll grow next year with the addition of McKesson and another California transplant, San Francisco-based Core-Mark Holding Co., which is relocating to Westlake.